Defense and Space
Article | June 8, 2022
The COVID-19 effect has been tendered on business aviation than commercial aviation. However, it is the operations that reported a surge in demand for business aviation. The demand has been witnessed from new businesses and and those who revamped their operations amid travel restrictions.
In 2020, the airline industry experienced a heavy loss of worth USD252 billion, reports IATA. The industry players were at risk, which included accounting with direct economic destruction. Prompted by other risks factors such as restrictions on movements, especially travel limitations due to COVID-19, there is a serious need for the industry to access its operations competently.
So here are two crucial questions that took the heat. First, how is the industry going to manage economic uncertainties, travel restrictions, and market instability? And second, how may these affect aviation business conclusions in the coming years?
Such considerations may include some crucial aspects. They are changes in valuation methods, revision of future investments with existing liabilities, re-assessment of forecasted fuel consumption, revision of manufacturing, marketing, and others.
This blog is aimed at capturing the impact of COVID-19. And how business aviation can proceed to bridge gaps across multiple travel restrictions, both during and after the COVID-19 crisis. To delve into detail, let's go further.
The Level of Airline Business Drop and Recovery
Globally, the aviation businesses were severely harmed by 80% in 2020. The industry players found it extremely complex to navigate the commitments. Also, their work with collaborations is slated for the same year.
Customers seemed uninterested in discussing new business acquisitions due to COVID travel restrictions on business. However, some operators preyed on lower prices and increased demand for aviation services and products. These were mainly in the manufacturing and marketing fields. The reason is some corporate clients easily adapted to the emergence of digital platforms. They switched to zoom calls to replace personal contacts and connections.
Michael Walsh, CEO of Aer Mobi, says,
“OEMs have now announced a major drop in production capacity. Potential buyers could be from booming sectors financial services and online sales as they may seek to purchase high-profit products. These will be only a few brilliant spots for new aircraft purchases for OEMs.”
On the same note, Shaun Quigley, Managing Director, Volantair Air Charter, says
“In the time of crisis, the ability is to “pull one’s head in." This is what will happen at least until the final quarter of 2021.”
Business aviation in 2021 will hover around 25% to 30% globally, says Jose Rego, Senior Director – Market Intelligence and Strategy, Embraer Executive Jets. The rebound will be sluggish until 2025.
While the travel businesses' situation in the pandemic is not up to mark, its believed that digital transformation is viable to conduct airline operations. Such transformation will drive sales eventually following the rise of trending technologies simultaneously.
Aviation Business by 2030
A major transformation is promised by an array of powerful new technologies and corporate clients’ pressure. The industry plays that turn this trend to their advantage have the opportunity to redefine, restructure, reform, and reshape their business amid air travel restrictions.
So how will the key players of the aviation sector take their businesses forward by 2025 and beyond? Here is the outline of vital forces that the sector will see transforming.
Robotics Maintenance
Currently, airline operations maintenance accounts for approximately 20% of the operating costs. However, as the pandemic happened, market players and novel inventions are placing big hopes on the intelligent automation of maintenance.
For example, Airbus uses two seven-axis robots on the new fourth A320 line in Hamburg to conduct 80% of their business operations, thus improving functional aspects for employees.
Intelligent automation is fueled by terabytes of data. The data could be stored and used by businesses to manage operations easily. The addition of robotics and AI in aviation has increased the digitalization shift landscape for established players. From automatic scanning, data mining to improved diagnostics, robotics has a significant role in the future of aviation operations and maintenance.
Use of Alternative Sources of Energy
The shifting of environmental sentiments has made the aviation industry include greenhouse gases, electrofuels, hydrogen, and even batteries. The industry has set a target of cutting down high energy emitter fuels by half by 2030.
Companies like Airbus have impressive plans to develop hydrogen planes in the next 15 years. Even for eleven years, SkyNRG has been known for supplying "advanced waste" biofuels to airlines. These fuels are recycled from industrial waste, cooking oil, agricultural and forestry residues.
New technologies from engineering and manufacturing of aerodynamic are going to play a significant role in upcoming airline trends like specialized and improved designs and the use of carbon-efficient biofuels and electric
In this case, the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) research found out that around 5.5% of aviation fuel could come from sustainable origins by 2030. Basically, it would be primarily from advanced waste biofuels.
Aviation Business: Witnessing Some Hope
There is an anticipation that the established aviation businesses will pick up their pace by 2022 amid COVID 19 restrictions.
Interestingly, there has been a pick up in air travel (essential air travel) in a specific part of the world. However, in some Asian countries, travel activity is estimated to be less than 40%. But the travel demand is expected to be higher in the years ahead.
Aviation business operators expect expanded business with new criteria of sales—digital. They might witness growth due to new prospect acquisitions that have adopted the digital workforce. The businesses expect green shoots of growth in the travel industry. Especially from business travel classes as these are seeking to experience fly again.
Business aviation traffic in 2021 highlighted the growing interest from buyers. On this, Jose Rego, Senior Director – Market Intelligence and Strategy, Embraer Executive Jets elaborates,
“There may be a peripheral surge in demand from first-time buyers; I expect this to affect fractional sales initially.”
Therefore, now IATA estimates that governments globally will provide $160 billion in support, loans, and tax breaks so that airline businesses can cover current costs.
Safety is Priority, so is Business
The aviation industry acclaims that business aviation might be on track sooner. In this context, the presence of a qualified team and fast-track applications, software, and platforms could help operators to function in a safe and well-maintained way.
As the aviation industry continues to plan new air travel rules (essential), aviation business is at an optimum point. Its crucial role in supplies, sales, business development, and essential air travel services has redefined the face of business. Thus, in this way aviation business has paved the way to make a strong comeback in the coming years.
Frequently Asked Questions
What can future measures due to the pandemic suggest for the aviation industry?
Airline businesses must have a robust plan which establishes the core of business aviation. The future is for market leaders. How they will manage roles and responsibilities responding to the crisis. Finally, national authorities will have a crucial role in stimulating demand and fostering the rapid recovery of the airport business. Restoring consumer confidence will be an essential part of this effort.
What is the COVID-19 advice for the aviation industry?
The global market leaders are actively managing the impact of COVID-19 to ensure aviation safety and to support the industry’s return to normal safety assurance activities. They have put efforts on surveillance approach on every business operation to increase accuracy by introducing technologies.
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Business Aviation
Article | January 28, 2022
Is the aviation industry finally reviving after the devastating 2020? If yes, then what will it show in the next five years?
2020 will be remembered in airline history as the most turbulent year to date. Due to the pandemic, the period brought massive changes in the airline industry—business models and customer behavior globally. As a result, regaining customer confidence and reforming business models have become a critical factor for airlines to uncloud the economic storm and remain a formidable competitor in the years of uncertainty ahead.
Technologies that were being used before the pandemic are now being studied well with vividness. The inclusion of new technologies is onboarding, which somehow sets up new aviation industry trends. These will be a timely solution to fight the ongoing economic instability and challenges pouring in.
To increase safety notions, boost business confidence, customer trust, and making airline operations more efficient, adaptability and high intelligent business outline is the new blueprint for survival and growth to happen in the next five years.
Drivers of Emerging Trends
The intention of emerging trends in the airline industry is from weak signals from a wide range of fields, including threats, technology, and potentiality to function remotely, impacting the industry’s all-over operational dynamics.
The trends are setting primarily due to the winds of change pounding the industry from different directions. Be it from technological, demographical to environmental shifts. Understanding the potential business landscape is therefore critical to ensure what the future of air travel will be.
During a study conducted by IATA, business leaders in the airline industry identified the most critical drivers of emerging trends that were probable to have an influential impact by 2035. Also, these drivers suggest bringing more and more opportunities in business models and operational models of the industry beyond 2020.
Therefore, it is the hope of all airline companies (you) that how you will be affected by future developments and how the entire business landscape will be changed by the trends discussed here. So, take advantage of the opportunities that some of these trends may give rise to.
Leading Aviation Trends to Expect
Cybersecurity
Today, the importance of cybersecurity technology in the airline industry is rising. Airlines, now being aware of the downsides of using traditional operational models, is becoming more concerned about delivering high-performance using technology.
With having well-operated cybersecurity functionality onboard, airlines are focusing on becoming more agile to scale their infrastructure. Also, in the next five years, increased connectivity between the real and virtual world, including robots, will eventually end the boundaries between virtual and physical security.
IATA’s research with the London School of Economics found that the aviation industry will invest $15 billion by 2035, thanks to connected operations.
Moreover, as cybersecurity matures, it will be seen as the most secure and scalable way of operating organizational data, and processing will be easier than before. You will have your airline documents within a secured centralized database, which will reduce silos of information that pose security risks and threats.
Biometric Technology
The pandemic, apart from bringing challenges, has helped businesses to leverage influential ideas to foster. Yes, it has made the airline industry emphasize the high usage of biometrics as a must-have technology stack. Biometrics is on the rise that can reinforce the idea of touchless operations in airports.
The airline industry forecast has laid primary focus on self-service. However, as the blend of software and technology is more in demand, applications will be more defined than before in the coming five years. The technology will allow automated checks, self-service systems using devices like mobile, tablets, and others and cover iris, face recognition, fingerprint, which will even work with PPE masks.
The industry is already making great experiences that allow businesses to conduct frictionless operations using biometric software and hardware. For example, in November 2020, Star Alliance introduced a novel interoperable biometric identity scanner platform for screening employees and passengers at airports.
AI & Big Data
Artificial Intelligence (AI) welcomed massive opportunities in transforming aviation business operations amid the ongoing crisis. This technology in the airline industry has immensely aided companies in collecting data and forming a virtual assistance environment for queries, enhanced logistics operation, security, and self-services with highly augmented reality.
A market survey reveals that 97.2% of the aviation companies are installing big data and AI together. In fact, 76.5% of airline companies are gaining the value of data collection with the help of big data and AI. Source: resources.vistair.com
AI is also being set up in terms of safety improvement initiatives and potential safety issues. In this case, Southwest Airlines partnered with NASA to build an automated system capable of preventing potential threats and breaches by using machine-learning algorithms.
Green Technology
Green technology is one of the upcoming trends in the airline industry in the next five years. The prediction is it will make novel changes in the airline industry from various directions like the workforce, shares, stakeholders, and governments.
In the green tech concept, it is the generational shift and advancement that may head the change using new tools. These would bring in notable opportunities beyond 2021.
If you observe, the pandemic has driven the agenda of sustainability in terms of climatic conditions. And you will be surprised to know that aviation has already put up a serious concern in its fossil fuel usage by 2035. Even aircraft manufacturers have begun their journey with green technology.
To clarify this, the main objective of sustainable development for the coming years is decarbonization and green technology investment.
Aviation companies like Japan Airlines and IAG are investing to bring net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, and by 2045, they aim to achieve carbon neutrality. And these, of course, are happening quickly due to digitalization.
Expecting a Sustainable ‘DIGI-TECH’ Future
As the pandemic brought downturn and slowdown in the airline industry, they have prioritized investing in digital by recognizing its importance and the optimum necessity. It is because it will be one of the significant ways for you to bring customers back and show your potential to endeavor services in a changing industry landscape.
So, technology and digital together must be supported that respects businesses’ need to invest in multiple areas of functionality. On the other side, revenue management goals also need to be focused on to gain success among competitors. And following the path of trending digital platforms will make you victorious over revenue management performance objectives. In this way, you will be in the skin of the game and would observe your company rising through the challenges over the coming years.
Frequently Asked Questions
What are the topmost technologies that will define aviation beyond 2021?
The technologies—3D printing in manufacturing, automation, and robotics are the topmost that will define how the aviation industry will be beyond 2021.
How is technology being used in aviation?
Airline operators use technology to market their services and products, advancing their software to leverage functionalities like biometrics, automation, cybersecurity, AI, big data, and more. Also, technology is being used to make safer airport operations like touchless checks to make safe for passengers.
Will the aviation industry overcome challenges?
Up until now, globally, the aviation industry is maintaining positive growth, despite prevailing challenges due to COVID-19. Technologically, it seems that the industry will foster slowly and gradually. Yet, there is sluggish growth economically due to high jet fuel prices.
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Air Transport
Article | July 15, 2022
NASA is known for developing and launching spacecraft that have a significant environmental impact. However, the space agency is fully on board with the net-zero movement. NASA supports the White House's Aviation Climate Action Plan. It is helping fund several aviation projects that aim to reduce the aviation industry’s damage to the environment.
NASA’s Sustainable Flight Demonstrator Program
NASA focuses on technologies for single-aisle aircraft, which are the powerhouses of many airline fleets and account for nearly half of global aviation emissions. NASA's Sustainable Flight Demonstrator (SFD) project aims to reduce carbon emissions and keep the US competitive in the design of single-aisle commercial airliners, which are in high demand.
"Since its creation, NASA has worked with industry to develop and implement innovative aeronautics technology and has shared it with the world," said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson. "Now, with this ambitious new project, we're again joining with US industry to usher in a new era of cutting-edge improvements that will make the global aviation industry cleaner, quieter, and more sustainable."
NASA Wants to Reduce the Environmental Impact of Commercial Aircraft
The program’s goal is to build, test, and fly a large-scale demonstrator. NASA hopes to find a business partner for a Funded Space Act Agreement with its Armstrong Flight Research Center in Edwards, California, by the beginning of 2023.
The agreement would draw on private-industry knowledge and experience, with an awardee developing a suggested technical plan and committing considerable cash to the project. Under this agreement, NASA would not purchase an aircraft or any other hardware for its missions. The mission of NASA is to develop new and innovative technologies and capabilities.
NASA will collect data on the ground and in the air. Agency and industry teams can use it to test the airframe configuration and related technologies.
Moving Away From Space
NASA's technologies are typically cutting-edge. However, as with many high-end items, the benefits and applications frequently filter down to the masses. NASA's specialized technology and research frequently has civil aviation applications. It's interesting to see how NASA seems to be moving away from space and going after planes that fly closer to Earth.
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Commercial Aviation
Article | April 13, 2021
There’s been a lot of talk lately about airlines around the world beginning to favor smaller aircraft. Not just amid the pandemic but for the foreseeable future as well. The debate was given fuel when Lufthansa’s CEO made comments about potential down-gauging of its fleet ahead. But have we really entered the era of smaller airplanes for good?
Many have argued that even when demand for air travel does return there will be less of it overall because of a precipitous and permanent drop in business travel. And beyond that, even where demand does exist, it will be for convenient, point-to-point service, not on A380s via big hubs – as smaller planes emerge that are capable of flying farther and people shy away from big, crowded airports and the hassle of connecting. All of which calls for smaller planes. I’ve argued recently that this seems a little hasty. Nevertheless, the jury is out, and as they say – only time will tell.
Have smaller planes taken over flying?
One thing we can look at is whether the notion that smaller planes rule the day holds true at major airlines right now. And pulling some Flightradar24 data we can see that this has been happening – mostly. The headline takeaway seems to be that bigger planes do still have their place, but for obvious reasons smaller wide-bodies have proven more desirable on many global routes during the past year.
Lufthansa dropped its Very Large Aircraft quickly
If we look at Lufthansa’s data, the trend is very clear right from the beginning of the pandemic. The A380 and the 747s (both -400 and -8I) took a definitive hit beginning in March 2020. That was it for the A380 and the 747-400 for good, it seems. The small rebound in A380 flights recorded in recent months were storage-related. And since the pandemic started, it’s clear that the smaller A330 has been clearly favored, taking up nearly double the percentage of flying it had at Lufthansa pre-pandemic.
What’s most interesting here is that the 747-8I did come back, in some weeks to pre-pandemic levels. That’s quite a big plane. It is probably hard to fill these days. But it is Lufthansa’s flagship now – it has a First Class cabin and it can carry quite a bit of cargo. As a result it kept flying for a while on the bigger US routes like LAX. However recent dips in demand, and the winter season, saw the smaller and more fuel-efficient A350 come in to replace it on many routes. As I write this the Lufthansa 747-8I is in flight on just two routes – Mexico City (MEX) and Buenos Aires (EZE) to Frankfurt (FRA).
If I were to take a guess, I’d say we continue to see the 747-8I for some time on these bigger routes and in busier seasons. It may turn out to be one of the last options for passengers to fly a 747 a few years from now. Eventually, though, the more efficient 777X will replace it. Though Lufthansa has said it’s looking to shift to smaller airplanes overall, the 777X seems a natural fit for its big hub to hub routes. I don’t think we’ll see a day when the A350 is the largest plane in Lufthansa’s fleet – at least as long as Germany remains Europe’s largest economy.
Delta favors smaller, but only by a little bit
If we look at Delta, which also has a wide range of wide-bodies in its fleet, the picture is a little more complicated. In part that’s because initially its 777s and A350s (both of which fit about 300 seats) took over quite a lot of flying while its smaller 767s (200 to 240 seats or so) were more or less parked.
Since then, however, the 777 fleet has been retired and the 767s (both -300 and -400 series) have been doing nearly 60% of Delta’s wide-body flying. And its smallest Airbus wide-body, the A330-200, has flown much less throughout the pandemic. The A330-300, A330-900neo and A350-900 have filled in the rest of the flying, but while they were doing a majority of the wide-body flying in the first months, they’re not back to flying roughly the same percentage of Delta’s wide-body flights as before the pandemic.
It’s interesting to note that a number of 767s have been retired during this time, and A330-300s have been used to fill the gaps where necessary despite having a higher seat count. If no 767s had been retired it’s likely the total percentage of flights run with the 767 would be even higher.
What’s the bottom line?
It seems that airlines have tended to park their biggest planes, but perhaps not as drastically as some might have expected. That may have had a lot to do with cargo capacity. But cargo capacity will continue to be a consideration post-pandemic as well, so it’s not as if these planes will prove useless once things get back to normal. And if we see the boom in travel demand that some are predicting is on the way, many of these larger aircraft may see they get plenty of use yet.
Will there be less very large aircraft in airline fleets overall? Yes, probably. The A380 is all but done for except at a handful of airlines. And will smaller, long-range planes like the 787 prove popular in the years ahead? No doubt. But the bigger, fuel efficient planes like the 777X and A350-1000 will almost certainly still have their place in the sky too.
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